Halfway through June still 'promising', two weeks later 'vulnerable': the job of customer contact employee. Both qualifications come from the UWV. How tenable is the label 'promising profession' in a sector that is reorganizing and transforming through AI and offshoring?

 

“In two or three years, half of our people will no longer be needed. And two or three years later, half of them will have disappeared again,” says Lenhard Los, CEO of VANAD Engage in a thematic issue of the FD of July 5. Los discusses two forces at play. Due to the increase in the minimum wage in the Netherlands, call center work has quickly moved abroad: half of Engage's customer contact employees now work in Turkey and Suriname.

And in addition, organizations want to reduce the volume of human customer contact. About three quarters of human-to-human customer contacts are unnecessary, Los believes; companies will try to halve that in the coming years. The sum as Los puts it: “In two, three years, half of our people will no longer be needed. And two, three years later, half of them will have disappeared again. That may be an unpleasant message, but we will have to reorganize.”

Seven thousand jobs

It should come as no surprise that VANAD is making this noise. In October 2024, Ad Nederlof already announced the start of the shrinkage with the prediction that it number of human agents would be reduced by up to 75% within five years. Other BPO players are also feeling the impact of AI and cost management by outsourcers. In recent years, some six to seven thousand agent jobs (plus a small army of staff and management positions) have been relocated to Suriname, where people work for Dutch organizations. Turkey is also popular. From bol to PostNL, from NS to Eneco and all Odido brands: they have all moved their customer contact in whole or in part to offshore locations.

Promising profession

The UWV reported on June 16 that 'customer contact/customer service employees' still belong to the category promising professions (for the record: for the period 2025-2026). A footnote was added: "the content of this profession may change due to developments in AI and automation." Also promising, but without the footnote: customer contact/customer service supervisors.

This hopeful 'news' was echoed without any problems by the KSF. But they, like everyone else, could have known better. As early as 11 June, UWV labour market advisor Erik Oosterveld gave a glimpse of the report that would be published in early July. Oosterveld was explicit: "In the relatively short term, many jobs in call centers and administration are disappearing, the UWV expects.”

Some customer contact professionals found that statement 'premature' or 'worryingly unqualified'. From the perspective of the average job tenure of one to three years, premature may be the right description. But the tipping point at which 'premature' turns into 'just in time' is hard to predict.

Vulnerable profession

Shortly after the presentation of 'promising professions', UWV sounded a completely different note. Based on discussions with 19 experts about the impact of AI, the organization concluded that the profession of customer service employee can be considered a vulnerable profession. But because it was an AI report and not specifically about customer contact, the appeal of low-wage countries remained out of the picture. However, UWV was explicit: the demand for customer service employees will decrease in the coming period.

With these developments, a job in customer contact is mainly 'promising' in offshore locations in the near future, but that is probably not what the UWV intended. It does have consequences for the inflow of new employees, who will have to deal with more complex customer contacts at the start. It can also have consequences for the attractiveness of the profession: this decreases if the chance increases that the work will be moved to a low-wage country.

Still from video The New Politics

FNV changes course – The latest action by FNV suggests that even the union has changed course. The union no longer focuses on the disappearance of Dutch jobs due to offshoring or AI, but is helping the Surinamese contact center sector to a new union for call centers. The new union is happy to enter into discussions, but seems to be diametrically opposed to the employers, who have previously tried to set up an employers' organization. The main goal: preventing a wage spiral. A number of smaller players offer higher hourly wages and the local economy will otherwise be disrupted, these are the main arguments. The brand new Surinamese union already spoke in a video broadcast of De Nieuwe Politiek about a form of slavery and the pursuit of better working conditions and higher wagesFNV director Heemskerk underlined that reference by saying exploitation to be found in an article in De Telegraaf.

For the six to seven thousand customer contact specialists in Suriname, the establishment of a trade union may be a hopeful development. But what applies to the Netherlands also applies to Suriname: customer contact is not only increasingly automated, it can also be done cheaper elsewhere. From that idea, the Surinamese economy would benefit more from higher investments in fundamental facilities (such as education) than investments in the call center caravan that will soon largely move on.

Impact of offshoring and AI on the Dutch customer contact job

What is the impact of offshoring and AI on customer contact, and how should the sector deal with this? The KSF has not yet formulated a concrete vision on this, according to a conclusion after the KSF HR Congress. Not that there is a lack of options. For example, focusing on high-quality customer contact - including defining this and naming promising sectors. Is there anything in terms of customer contact that we would like to retain?

The industry could also focus on developing educational programs, in collaboration with the business community and the education sector, so that contact centers can contribute to the further development of our (more) digital economy. What do all the changes actually mean for the organizational form of contact centers? And if AI (now or in the future) is good at empathy and conversations are becoming increasingly complex, how do we ensure that contact center work remains suitable as a starting position? Does it still make sense to grow from agent to team leader or will there be less need for that in the future?

Will this problem resolve itself?

Perhaps these kinds of questions are irrelevant, because the average duration of employment perfectly matches the desired natural course. In other words: the problem solves itself before it becomes serious. After all, the six thousand Surinamese seats did not lead to six thousand dismissals in the Netherlands either?

A Dutch-speaking job in customer contact may still be promising for the time being (so apply quickly!), but the vulnerability to both AI and offshoring does not come out of the blue.

(Ziptone/Erik Bouwer)

Featured, Human Resources