New research from the Stanford Digital Economy Lab shows that employment in entry-level customer service jobs, among others, has declined significantly compared to entry-level jobs that are less susceptible to AI. Stanford used recent data from payroll processor ADP, among others, regarding millions of American workers. Entry-level customer service jobs are appearing less and less frequently on paychecks.

 

The growth in the number of non-AI-sensitive entry-level jobs is nearly a fifth higher than that of entry-level jobs that are sensitive to AI. By comparing the latest figures with those of 2025, Stanford also concludes that the gap between the two is widening. Nevertheless, the researchers No alarm yet about widespread job displacement by AI.

However, Customer Service Representatives specifically rank second in terms of susceptibility to substitution by automation; in contrast to many other professions where AI functions as a supplement to the work. Where AI usage is predominantly of an automating nature (i.e., replaces work), youth employment declines. Where usage is predominantly supplementary, employment is flat or rising, especially for experienced employees.

The image aligns with the conclusion of the BCG Henderson Institute earlier this year, which explicitly classified the call center employee as eligible for replacement.

The Stanford researchers have in their article Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence A sub-study was included, specifically dedicated to customer service employees by age group. The number of customer service jobs for 22- to 25-year-olds shows a decline of approximately 18 percent. The Stanford researchers deduce from the data that the substitution is occurring not through outflow, but through inflow. In other words: no layoffs, but fewer young employees being hired.

Stanford suggests that generative AI handles knowledge already captured in text particularly well. In professions where explicit knowledge predominates, youth employment declines; conversely, professions involving implicit knowledge offer faster growth for experienced workers. The researchers also add some caveats. For instance, the US ADP data contains a relatively high number of job roles that are susceptible to AI.

Dutch figures

For the Dutch situation, the customer contact sector has so far been able to rely solely on figures from the UWV. In the fourth quarter of 2025, there were approximately 3.300 open vacancies for customer contact employees, 18 percent fewer than a year earlier. At the same time, the number of unemployment benefit recipients interested in a customer contact position rose to 3.500 in February 2026, an increase of 35 percent. compared to two years earlier.

That pattern also points to lower demand on the inflow side and a higher supply of potential employees. Intelligence Group concluded in the report Youth, AI and the labor market 2026 that there is no convincing evidence that AI directly leads to higher youth unemployment, but that something is changing on the inflow side. According to that report, the number of entry-level vacancies in legal services, administration, and marketing fell by 30 to over 40 percent, while the demand for experienced employees in those same professions is growing.

The UWV still classifies the customer contact employee as part of the promising professions, with a footnote that the content of the profession may change due to AI and automation. That footnote seems to be gaining significance.

Future of the profession

The latest figures raise questions about contact center managers' dependence on the talent pool formed by newcomers to the contact center. The number of new customer service representatives joining is decreasing; this means that the internal influx of, for example, new team leaders, WFM analysts, quality coaches, and trainers is shrinking.

A second aspect is that customer service representatives start with simple conversations and often only gain sufficient experience to function fully after a few months. If the simple conversations are eliminated, part of the practice material is also lost.

The Customer Service Federation will present its vision document on the future of the profession on September 3. The figure of 19 percent will presumably not appear in it, but the question remains whether the sector will hire enough new recruits in the coming years and how they will gain experience.

(Ziptone/Erik Bouwer)

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